By Laurie Hainley, MS, RD, Founder of Hainley Nutrition Strategies and a frequent collaborator of Global Food IQ.
+++
For more than 40 years, Americans have been advised to cut down on saturated fat – to opt for fat-free and low-fat dairy over whole-fat choices and lean proteins over fattier meats. But now, we’re on the precipice of a major change. Leaders at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) have indicated that the next Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA) will no longer recommend reducing saturated fat, and that reduced-fat requirements will be scrapped from federal nutrition programs such as school meals.
These drastic changes beg the question: Is there truly enough evidence to eliminate saturated fat advice?
Does Eating Less Saturated Fat Really Lead to Better Health?
The long-standing advice to reduce saturated fat is primarily tied to its relationship with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk – a connection that has been upheld in recent scientific reviews.
For example, in 2020, the prestigious organization Cochrane published a systematic review of 15 randomized clinical trials (RCT) – the gold-standard of nutrition research. The review found moderate-quality evidence to support a positive relationship between lower saturated fat intake and reduced risk of cardiovascular events (e.g., heart attack or stroke). Data indicate that lowering intakes to below 10% of daily calories can reduce risk by 17%, with further dietary restriction leading to even larger protective effects. The review did not, however, find any significant benefits related to other heart health outcomes, including mortality.
Some experts have argued that saturated fat RCTs contain major flaws and inconsistent findings – deficiencies that should warrant a reconsideration of advice to limit intakes. Yet, whether these flaws impact the Cochrane results in a meaningful way is debated.
The science is more limited for health outcomes other than cardiovascular health. Both Cochrane and the World Health Organization have found mixed or little-to-no benefits associated with reduced saturated fat intake on diabetes risk. And, while cutting saturated fat may have some positive impacts on body weight, the effects are small.
Does the Food Source of Saturated Fat Matter?
The most recent evolution in our understanding of saturated fat is that the food source of the fat might make all difference – particularly when it comes to dairy foods.
An increasing body of scientific evidence indicates that eating dairy foods, regardless of their fat content, can have a positive or neutral impact on cardiovascular health – a finding that challenges earlier RCT conclusions. A leading theory for this surprising effect is that the dairy food matrix – the complex system of nutrients and bioactive compounds that exist in dairy foods – impacts saturated fat metabolism in a different way than other foods, such as meat. Indeed, a 2022 systematic review of prospective cohort studies found that contrary to historic saturated fat science, higher intakes of both high-fat and low-fat dairy are associated with lower risk of stroke, and generally, high-fat dairy is not associated with any adverse cardiovascular outcomes. These findings were upheld by a 2025 Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee (DGAC) scientific review, which found limited evidence that substituting higher-fat dairy with lower-fat dairy led to no difference in CVD mortality. In other words, low-fat dairy may not be any more beneficial than reduced- or whole-fat dairy for this outcome.
Have Experts Been Swayed by Evolving Science?
Globally, the public health majority still recommends limiting dietary saturated fat. The World Health Organization updated its saturated fat advice in 2023 and continues to advise keeping intakes below 10% of daily calories.
However, other groups are starting to adapt their advice for dairy foods specifically:
- Australia Heart Foundation: Dropped its low-fat dairy advice for the general population in 2019, stating “there is not enough evidence to recommend fat modification [for dairy products].” The group still recommends opting for lean meat.
- Diabetes Canada: No longer exclusively recommends low-fat dairy, stating that “recent evidence demonstrates that saturated fat from dairy foods…may be acceptable within the total daily caloric intake.” The organization still recommends reducing overall saturated fat intake.
- U.S. Food and Drug Administration: Approved a new dairy-focused qualified health claim in 2024, which communicates that eating yogurt, regardless of fat content, may reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes.
What Does This Mean for the 2025-2030 DGA?
If the 2025-2030 DGA abandons its historic position on limiting saturated fat to <10% of calories, the policy document would conflict with the scientific majority and would face some backlash. Based on emerging data, a more effective pathway to updating national nutrition advice may be to recognize more nuance around particular food sources or types of saturated fat, rather than only issue blanket intake goals.
Whatever the ultimate advice is, the 2025-2030 DGA result will undoubtedly have far-reaching impacts on national nutrition programs, communications, and education efforts – leading to new challenges and opportunities for a variety of foods and beverages. Reach out to Global Food IQ for help plotting a course that sets up your organization for success.
